01.01.10

Watching It All Fall Apart

Posted in Economy at 07:42 by lnxwalt

This is a pretty amazing animation that shows just how widespread and how deep the recession has been.

The only thing is, this is not just a recession. It might not even be just a depression. It seems to be a permanent inflection point in the national economy. If you look at the job losses, for example, most of them are gone forever. Chrysler, for example, will probably close entirely in 2010. The current and former employees are not going to get their jobs back. Ever.

Unfortunately, the government’s recovery efforts are focused around two things: protect the banks and get state governments (and their contractors) spending, so that their employees will spend, in the hope that we can return to the conditions of recent times. We all know that the conditions of recent times were an illusion, that America has been losing industry after industry and exporting its middle-class jobs since the late 1970s. Thus, we all know that the government’s efforts, as the now stand, are doomed to failure. We, and most other nations, are ignoring the lessons of this econolypse.

Do not get me wrong. They very well could convince enough consumers that things are better so those consumers will be willing to take on debt to buy more stuff. They could very well convince enough bankers and business managers that things are better so they will be willing to make more loans, make more products, and hire more workers. But it will not last. The economy has fundamentally changed, and we would do better to face the facts and act accordingly.

In many ways, this is equivalent to the Industrial Revolution, when farm labor dried up and factory jobs arose to replace them. Many people decried the end of their traditional employment, but their complaining had no impact on the eventual replacement of their whole economic basis. That base was replaced with one focused solely around the exchange of currency, with the use of mechanical equipment to replace the human and animal labor that had previously powered the whole world’s economy. The only thing is, it is not apparent what the new model will be, nor what business structures will arise to exploit it.

Still, we do know that hyperglobalism [PDF] has made every community very dependent upon the choices of strangers in remote places. We know that information assymetries of the type that brought down the financial industries will continue to exist. Therefore, we ought to try very hard to “close the circle” in our communities. Do you have a local banker, local baker, local butcher? Does your local baker have a nearby miller to supply his flour? Does that miller and that butcher have a local farmer to supply the grain and the meats? Does your local construction guy get his lumber from a locally-owned hardware store, and does that hardware store have a nearby lumber mills to supply its own needs? We need to build networks of small, locally-owned businesses (SLOBs), whether they are family-owned businesses (FOBs), minority-owned businesses (MOBs), owner-managed businesses (OMBs), woman-owned businesses (WOBs), or community-based groups (CBGs).

At least until things start to gel, and we can understand what the new world will look like, your best bet is your nearby community. If you are betting that your future economic lifeline will come through some large, out-of-area corporation (LOOAC), you will probably be disappointed. It is up to YOU and your family members, friends, and neighbors, to work in “coopetition” and help trap a larger fraction of your area’s income within the community. Close the circle or prepare to starve.


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